4DW x ChatGPT (and an announcement)
Will generative AI make the shorter working week a reality?
April 2023 will surely go down in history as a turning point for generative AI. From ChatGPT to Bing, Bard to BLOOM, it felt as though everyone was either talking about AI, experimenting with AI or worrying about it taking our jobs.
Aside from working through some thorny legal issues with clients looking to harness the incredible power of these new tools, I’ve been thinking about the possibilities generative AI offers for the 4 day working week movement. At the risk of adding to the noise, I’m not the only one. A Nobel prize-winning economist and several other experts got there first. The basic argument is along these lines:
the 4 day week is all about achieving 100% productivity in 80% of the working time (with no reduction in pay);
ChatGPT and other generative AI tools make employees more productive;
that increased productivity will be harnessed to enable employees to complete their work in less time, and therefore eventually enjoy a 4 day week without impacting their employer’s bottom line.
While there’s no question that generative AI boosts productivity when used in the right way, there are some nuances to dive into here.
More is more: who will benefit from AI-driven productivity?
Firstly, can we really assume that the productivity gains offered by AI would be used to shorten working time? There’s a risk that we could find ourselves heading in the opposite direction, with a smaller, AI-assisted workforce operating across an extended working week.
This is where the “taking our jobs” debate comes in. One of the most recent developments in the world of generative AI is AutoGPT (an “AI agent” that is essentially a stack of AI tools that can collaborate and self-prompt to perform multi-stage tasks autonomously). With this, it’s easy to see how even complex processes could eventually be completed in the blink of an eye. To an employer looking to cut costs, the idea of slick, hyper-productive bots replacing humans (and their need for salaries, sick pay, benefits and time off) is a tempting one. Realistically, even the most efficient human will hit a ceiling when it comes to productivity, regardless of any optimised working processes or a well-managed 4 day week.
Interestingly, much of the discussion around the productivity benefits of generative AI has focused on using the technology to complete the same administrative tasks a human would otherwise complete (such as writing emails, preparing slide decks or summarising meeting notes) in order to get more done in the same amount of time. Nobody has stopped to ask whether working smarter with AI actually might actually mean eliminating unnecessary tasks rather than simply delegating them to a bot.
In my view, this stems from a stubborn perception that more is better when it comes to work. From hustle culture to lawyers charging by the billable hour, it’s hard to get away from the idea that working longer hours leads to greater success. In the 9 months since I’ve been writing about the 4 day week, I’ve had a few thought-provoking conversations with people who say that they actually prefer to work 5 days. For some this was rooted in enjoyment of their work and a desire to spread their tasks more evenly across the week, but others expressed a fear that working a 4 day week would limit their careers, which is a reflection of our broader working culture.
A matter of policy: protecting employment
On the flipside, is there an incentive for governments and policymakers to promote the 4 day week to keep more people employed in industries disrupted by AI?
Goldman Sachs recently estimated that generative AI could expose the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs worldwide to automation. They observed that this could be offset (as it has been historically) by improved productivity and the creation of new jobs and occupations, leading to an AI-driven increase of 7% in global GDP.
Working time reduction could be another option to consider, and there’s historical precedent for this too. Our current 5 day, 40-ish hour standard working week was not always the standard. During the Great Depression, the US federal government implemented targeted policies to reduce the working week. The idea was to counter mass unemployment by redistributing the available work, which successfully boosted economic growth and productivity. Eventually this led to legislation mandating a maximum working week of 40 hours, down from the 50 to 60 hours that was previously the norm.
Realistically, this type of policy intervention is a long way off. Goldman Sachs’ predictions are based on a timeline of 10 years following widespread adoption of generative AI, which means we need the AI to be embedded into our ways of working before we start to see the true impact on the labour market.
Wasting time to save time: the AI learning curve
It’s fair to say that not everyone has the skills to figure out how to make the most of generative AI as a time-optimiser. For non-specialist users, the starting point is to experiment with publicly available tools like ChatGPT, just for fun. I’m sure many of us disappeared down the March 2023 rabbit hole of prompting ChatGPT to write limericks, create technical documents in the style of Yoda, or suggest recipes for the pile of miscellaneous ingredients left over in the fridge. While this learning process is a valuable step towards future time-savings, it can itself take up quite a bit of time. It’s also true to say that many (most?) of the 100+ million users of ChatGPT won’t necessarily progress beyond the limericks and recipes.
There are interesting parallels here with a 1994 study by economists Sue Bowden and Avner Offer, who found that time-using technologies (such as television and radio) were adopted faster than time-saving technologies (such as vacuum cleaners and washing machines). In other words, we’ll collectively waste a lot of time learning and adjusting before we can start to save time. Despite the hype, it might be a while before we see the large-scale productivity benefits that will accelerate progress towards a universal 4 day week.
The value of a game-changer
As we saw with the pandemic, seismic events have a habit of forcing us to rethink our ways of working. Lockdowns, remote working and the wellbeing challenges of covid pushed the conversation about the 4 day week firmly into the mainstream. Generative AI is a similarly game-changing development, but it’s just one part of the equation when it comes to figuring out how to shorten the working week. In itself, it won’t miraculously accelerate adoption of the 4 day week unless the challenges above are addressed.
📣 An announcement
Some exciting news for lawyers who are:
building a business case to work a 4 day week and want to think through the ins and outs of how to make it work in their role; or
are already working a 4 day week and want to troubleshoot, access moral support or optimise for the next stage of their career development.
I have a few slots available for paid 1:1 mentoring sessions. I haven’t yet decided on a catchy name for these sessions (“4 Day Lawyer Power Hour” doesn’t quite cut it!) but please get in touch by replying to this email or messaging me on LinkedIn if you’d like to discuss.
If needed, I can help you make the case for having our sessions funded by your employer (for example as part of a career development package or a parental leave/return-to-work budget).
In case you’re wondering who I am:
💻 I’m a solicitor who has worked a 4-day week as a Magic Circle senior associate, as Associate General Counsel for an international technology company and now as the founder of a growing legal consulting business.
🏅 I have more than a decade of experience as a mentor, and I love to help people work through challenges and achieve their full potential. I’m especially passionate about supporting people to enter and stick around in the legal profession, and I was recently highly commended as “Mentor of the Year” at the Women & Diversity in Law Awards 2023.
Here are a couple of comments from mentees who have recently signed up for “4 Day Lawyer Power Hours” (I really do need a better name!):
“You gave me many useful tips, strategies and ideas to think about for my business case, but most importantly, filled me with confidence and inspiration that I CAN MAKE THIS WORK!! Thank you!” (In-House Counsel)
“Emma is a natural mentor and coach – a great listener, she asked clear, sensible questions to elicit further information to really get to understand my situation. Emma provided me with a fresh perspective, providing the benefit of her own extensive experience, whilst keeping it relevant to my own. Emma’s generous and pragmatic advice gave me plenty to think about and practical problem-solving tools to build on to help me work towards my goals. Emma made me feel energised, confident and motivated to move forward.” (Senior Legal Counsel)
As a practising lawyer with a wide range of experience, I can work with legal professionals at any level and in any setting, whether in private practice, in house or at the bar. If this is something you need in your working life, feel free to reply to this email or message me on LinkedIn.
That’s all for this month. Unless another game-changing development comes along and disrupts the plan, the next edition of The 4 Day Lawyer will delve into working time reduction as an expression of the values and purpose of an organisation. Thanks for reading and please do comment, share and subscribe.
The fine print:
All opinions expressed in The 4 Day Lawyer are my own and not those of my current or former employers. My 4 day working week is an individual arrangement and is not associated with the UK’s 4 day working week pilot. This newsletter is an opinion piece and does not constitute legal advice or create any kind of solicitor/client relationship; please consult with a qualified professional if you need advice on a legal issue.